The short answer to this question of course is: Yes. The longer answer, which we shall get to presently, is “Treat writing like a business and do a Cost Benefit Analysis”.

There are plenty of services that will take advantage of you otherwise. Literary agencies that charge reading fees, bogus fee-charging contests, and unscrupulous Vanity Presses are traps that immediately spring to mind. By adhering to this rule, the novice writer can avoid being bilked of both their time and their money.

Like any rule, though, if the phrase “Money always flows towards the writer” is adhered to too rigidly, it can actually hurt you. See, there’s actual intrinsic value to publicity. It’s hard to quantify, but put it this way, would you pay $50 to be a part of Oprah’s book club? Of course you would. No brainer. Of course, this situation could never happen, could it? Okay, let’s change it up a little. Would you pay a publicist $5000 to get you on the Today Show? Again, this should be an “absolutely”. But look! Money is moving away from the writer!!!

Further, agents charge you 15% of your fees. Just because they see it before you do, doesn’t mean you aren’t paying them that money. Money is moving away from the writer, but again agents provide a service with real value. No one objects to paying your agent, so why object to paying for publicity?

YouTube Preview Image

Now, in the YouTube video I linked to above Harlan mentions that the interviewer tells him that he should do the interview for free because of the publicity he’d get. Now, he’s freaking Harlan Ellison and he doesn’t need the extra publicity, but you do, and, if confronted by that situation, you should probably agree to do the interview for free.

Because of my Writers of the Future win, I’ve been doing a lot of interviews lately, each of which has taken me a fairly substantial amount of time to complete or arrange, and as we all know, time is money. But how do you think Sirius Radio would have reacted if I’d asked for payment? Maybe I should have charged my good friend Dave Steffen for the time I spent on his interview at Diabolical Plots? No effen way.

See, what Harlan Ellison neglects to consider in his interview is that the relation of money to publicity is inversely proportional to your level of fame. When you’re a nobody, publicity is damn expensive.

What you need to do as a new author is price it out yourself. Treat it like any business investment, because remember, what you are running is a business. Should you pay $10 to enter a contest? Do a Cost Benefit Analysis. Try and calculate your odds of winning (look at previous winning entries, the number of entries received, etc, etc. Be as scientific as possibly). Then look at the amount of publicity you’d get from a win. Will you story be published by an online site with a massive circulation? Be in print? [Again, circulation is important. POD houses don't count (unless it's Cyberwizard Productions ;) )].  Assign a dollar value to that level of publicity, say, $10,000 for a WotF win and maybe as little as $1 for a win at a smaller venue.  Now take your odds of winning as a decimal percentage and multiply by the amount of publicity you’d get to figure out if it’s worth your time to enter.

Let’s take a concrete example: The Glimmer Train Short Story Award for New Writers.

Privately, I calculated my odds of winning at 1%. I’ve won a national contest before, this one is for new writers only, and I had a particularly strong story. On the other hand Glimmer Train doesn’t like Spec Fic, and while my piece was extremely literary, it still had a spec element.

Glimmer Train has a circulation of 5K, and these are all Wise Readers (Dudes that will nominate you for awards, or at least remember your name). So I figure a win is worth 1K in publicity (I’d have to pay a publicist that much to get a commensurate amount of fame). Add in the $1250 in prize money and you have $2250 in real value in a win.

Here is the formula again:

(Real Value) X (Odds of Winning) = (Maximum Fee Paid)

$2250 X .01 = $22.5.  The Entry Fee is $15, which is less than $22.5, therefore, my business sense tells me I should enter, even though I’ve calculated my odds of winning at 1%. This is a Cost-Benefit Analysis.

There is one writing rule that trumps all others (including “Money Always Flows Towards the Writer”), and that is “writing rules should be adhered to rigidly by the beginner, and treated as a loose guideline by the master”.

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21 Comments(+Add)

1   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 24th, 2009 at 12:33 pm

Good point about cost of publicity being inversely proportional to the level of fame. Notice that even though he didn’t do the DVD commentary, “Harlan bitching about publicity” has gotten him press, and presumably he wasn’t paid for it. He wasn’t too proud to be interviewed in order to bitch about being interviewed.

I couldn’t listen to that video (I’ve got sound problems on my computer just now), but if it’s the one I’m thinking of, some DVD makers wanted him to do interviews for a show that he wrote for. I can actually understand his point in this particular case, because if he did the interview he would not be promoting himself, he would be promoting the box set. Your average TV watcher who’s watching the box set is not going to say “This Ellison guy sounds so interesting I’m going to buy some of his books”. Most people don’t even pay that much attention to the names in the credits anyway unless they already know those people.

The interviews you’ve sat for, on the other hand, are promoting yourself. If you make yourself sound compelling enough, someone might pick up WotF XXV, and then say “This Lapp guy has great stories!” and will watch for your stories henceforth.

2   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 24th, 2009 at 12:40 pm

Also, in Harlan’s case, the DVD publisher wanted to pay him nothing, but was presumably going to try to make millions of dollars of sales that they wanted to sell partially with a mention of “Harlan Ellison interview” on the box.

If I was going to make large sums of cash off interviews, I might consider it reasonable for the interviewees to ask for a cut. But, of course, I have no direct monetary incentive for running the site. Instead of making money, I am widening my social network, and in exchange the interviewees are getting free publicity. It’s a win-win. :)

3   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 24th, 2009 at 12:51 pm

Wow, I am chatty today, aren’t I? :D

Along the same lines, another question: why do you blog? I would be really impressed if someone were paying you to do this. If not, you’re sort of giving the milk away for free, aren’t you? Why buy the cow? Instead of writing a blog post, you could have written the first draft of a flash story, or a few pages of a novel.

One reason might be that you just like blogging. Just because you’re making money writing fiction doesn’t mean that’s all you’re allowed to do.

Otherwise, maintaining a tangible web presence is a good way to drum up publicity too. If an author writes interesting blog posts, (for instance about the money flowing to the writer), then surfers are more likely to hang around that blog, which creates bigger exposure when a new publication for that author is released. :D

Plus it’s just so easy to isolate yourself when you’re writing, it’s just healthy to interact with people with similar interests, and the internet is a great way to do that.

Okay, I think I’m done now. Really. :)

4   SMD    http://wisb.blogspot.com/
September 24th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

I will have thoughts on this when I have time to collect them. Needless to say I will be disagreeing.

5   Oso    http://osomuerte.wordpress.com
September 24th, 2009 at 5:16 pm

“Money flows toward the writer” is a beginner’s guide to not getting scammed. Don’t pay to get the manuscript read or published, don’t pay an agent up front, don’t get talked into a bookdoctor.

But an author can certainly choose to spend money. How many writing books have I bought? How much does Clarion cost? Or a MFA? This is not a hard and fast rule for everything; it’s a guide for the necessities. You need a publisher, you need an agent.

It is to be expected that a publisher will do something to promote your book, which is their investment. So do you need a publicist? No. I also don’t need a better laptop or a laser printer or a comfortable computer chair. It just improves the process. So might a publicist or writer-paid editor or fee-based contest or whatever. If someone tells you you must spend money, then you’ve got a scammer.

6   jordan    http://www.everydayfiction.com
September 25th, 2009 at 11:01 pm

@Dave,

Well, the blog allowed Shaun Farrell to contact me when the original Adventures in Sci-Fi Publishing Interview we did was lost to a tech error. The result was that I was re-interviewed while two other 1st place winners weren’t.

Yeah, I like blogging (now), so that’s also a plus.

@Shaun. I wouldn’t expect anything less.

@Scott, I think that’s the difference mainly. All I’m saying is that writers need to treat their writing career like a business >because that’s what it is<. Sometimes, businesses need to invest in themselves.

7   SMD    http://wisb.blogspot.com/
September 26th, 2009 at 10:13 am

First, to the Harlan thing: As already mentioned, Harlan was pissed about the person refusing to pay him to use his likeness to sell a product that he’d already been paid for anyway. They essentially wanted to use his already valued name to sell more copies, but didn’t want to pay him for using him as a publicity vehicle. This would be like going to a great publicist and saying “I want you to publicize my book, but I don’t want to pay you for it.” Whether Ellison feels he should get paid for every interview he does, I don’t know, but he certainly wanted to get paid when people were using him to make money without giving him something in return.

And I know you wrote this post as a response to me, but I was never talking about paying for publicity. I think publishers should fork out more for an author, but even so, authors want to sell books, and if that means paying a publicist or whatever, then so be it. They’re not losing money for doing any work; they’re paying for someone else to do that work. It’s not like paying someone $5,000 to publish a story you wrote.

As for the contests: Yes, you can run all these cost analyses. That’s fine and good, but the chances of anyone winning these large contests is slim to none to begin with, even if they are good. You can’t assume that your opinion of your work, or even the opinion of others, is the same opinion as the people who judge these contests. The reality is you can’t assume any chance of success. I only know that I might have a chance at WOTF because I have two honorable mentions, which means something I’m doing one of the judges likes. I don’t know what was liked, which ultimately means I can’t know what my chances are of winning. I just know I have a chance…

I also take issue with your figures up there. If Glimmer Train has a readership of 5K, that’s really small. You pay $15 for the minuscule chance you can win, but the gains are not all that great. Maybe it helps you some, but 5K is not like getting published in F&SF, which costs you only a postage stamp to submit to, or, heck, WOTF, which also costs only postage and has a large readership (and gets you noticed by authors in the field, along with others; many a story I have read of winners of that contest ending up with a book deal just by going to the ceremony at the end of the submission year and talking to the judges and big names who work with WOTF).

And then you run into the problem with your formula. If you have very little chance to win, and it costs $15 to enter, then you’re likely to be out $15 that time around, and $15 the next time around, and so on. If you get lucky, then maybe not, but most people aren’t that lucky. So, already, after two tries, you’ve pretty much lost more than the maximum fee based on your model. If WOTF cost that kind of money I’d be out over $100, with perhaps the same chance of winning each time. It doesn’t just reset, it adds up. Each time you’re adding another $15 with the max always at that $20-something. After a while, if you’re particularly unlucky, or can’t hit the right chords, you’re out a lot of money and have gained nothing in return.

But this is all personal for me. People can do whatever the hell they want. I just refuse to spend money to have someone read my submission to see if it’s worth their time. Contests that require fees are no better than magazines or agents that require reading fees. And none of us would suggest you submit to an agent that wants to charge you or a magazine that wants to charge you. Why is it suddenly acceptable to do so with a contest?

8   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 26th, 2009 at 10:24 am

Speaking of submissions that cost money, I submitted to a literary magazine a while back via a mailed submission. In the form rejection they encouraged me to next time send the submission via email, because it’s more environmentally friendly. And electronic submissions only cost $3, they say, which is about as much as it would cost to mail it anyway.

I can’t say I was impressed by a magazine trying to line their pocketbooks by charging extra for “environmentally friendly” submissions and then guilt tripping those who don’t participate. Even if a mailed submission did cost me that much (which it doesn’t, it only cost me about half that much), I would rather pay the money to the folks at the post office who are performing a service for me, then to a magazine just to reject my submission with a form letter.

9   jordan    http://www.everydayfiction.com
September 26th, 2009 at 10:29 am

Shaun,

Re: The Cost/Benefit Analysis. Sure you’d lose, and then you’d be out you $15. This could happen over and over. However, if your figures are right, you will win over the long haul. Let’s say your odds of winning are 1%. Further, let’s say that you’re moderately unlucky and it takes you 99 tries before you win. You’ve spent 2225 dollars, but you’ve STILL made money because you won 2250.

The problem is in the odds, which you can’t know. My 1% might actually be 0.1%, and then I’m screwed aren’t I?

With GlimmerTrain, those 5K readers are usually Wise Readers, that is, people who will remember your name and probably publish you in other venues.

Sure F&SF is free to submit to. Submit there first. However, in that case, you’re competing against established pros at a disadvantage.

In any case, I didn’t say submit to contests exclusively. My argument was simply that you shouldn’t write them off.

10   jordan    http://www.everydayfiction.com
September 26th, 2009 at 10:32 am

Dave,

Yeah, paying to submit to a magazine is usually a no-no. However, see the cost/benefit analysis above.

11   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 26th, 2009 at 10:36 am

Me, I haven’t seen a contest compelling enough to submit to for a fee. To me, it’s like paying a publisher to publish you, but without a guarantee of publication.

I’m assuming you’ve read Glimmer Train? I submitted to their free submissions until I read a copy and realized I could never write anything they could possibly be interested in. I’m not knocking their style but what they value in their stories is clearly divergent from what I value.

12   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 26th, 2009 at 10:38 am

“Let’s say your odds of winning are 1%. Further, let’s say that you’re moderately unlucky and it takes you 99 tries before you win.”

Statistics don’t work like that. Even if your odds were 1 in 100, that would not be true.

Each entry to a contest is statistically independent from every other one. That means that each entry is 1 in 100. The odds don’t improve the more you get rejected, they stay the same.

13   jordan    http://www.everydayfiction.com
September 26th, 2009 at 10:42 am

I don’t follow you Dave. Where did I say that entry were related to each other???

However, if your odds of winning at 1% each time you enter, random chance says that you will place in a hundred entries. Not necessarily, of course, if you’re SUPER unlucky, it could take a thousand times, or you could never place.

14   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 26th, 2009 at 10:46 am

“However, if your odds of winning at 1% each time you enter, random chance says that you will place in a hundred entries.”

That’s not true. By the same reasoning, if you flip a fair coin twice, it will come up heads one of those two times. Which does not always happen.

Anyway, the stats details are a digression, just pointing out that a 1% chance does not suggest success in 100 tries.

15   jordan    http://www.everydayfiction.com
September 26th, 2009 at 10:59 am

Dave, I don’t think you read the rest of my comment, where I said that you might not win in a thousand tries.

Further, I think you need to take a stats class >:)

In your coin scenario, you have a really good chance of getting a head in one of those two flips. Put it this way: The odds of getting two tails is 1/2 * 1/2, which is 1/4, so you have a 3/4 chance of getting heads in one of those two flips.

Look at it this way. These are the possible flips for two coins:

H, H
H, T
T, H
T, T

In only one of those four, do you NOT get a “head”.

In the GlimmerTrain example, you have a 1/100 * 1/100 * 1/100… to 100 chance of NOT winning, assuming your odds are calculated correctly. This means it is very probable that you will win, but not guaranteed.

16   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 26th, 2009 at 11:05 am

“random chance says that you will place in a hundred entries.”

This is where you said you WOULD win in 100 tries. I see you did contradict yourself later in the same post. I was pointing out that ON AVERAGE you would win in 100 tries, which is not the same thing as saying you WILL win in 100 tries.

And of course disregarding the fact that you have no way of knowing that 1% is even remotely accurate. My chance of winning that contest is 0% because what I value in a story is mutually exclusive to what they value. :)

I like the idea of doing a cost-benefit analysis, but when the only numbers you have are only based on guesses and not data, I have my doubts about what the benefit of such a cost-benefit analysis could possibly be. :)

17   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 26th, 2009 at 11:11 am

Also, I’m not sure what the ellipsis in your formula represents, so I’m not sure what you’re saying.

Your odds of being rejected for 100 submissions are (99/100) to the 100th power, which is about .366. My whole point from the beginning is that 63.4% chance of winning in 100 tries on average, is quite different than saying that you can expect to win in 100 tries.

It doesn’t really matter, anyway, but I just thought I’d try to clear up the confusion about what I was saying. :)

18   jordan    http://www.everydayfiction.com
September 26th, 2009 at 11:19 am

“Random chance” was my weasel word there. I should have said “random chance says you SHOULD win”.

Yeah, as I a said to Shaun, it’s that 1% chance that’s the tricky point. However, I’ve already won WotF, and that contest is only available to new authors, so I think 1% is a pretty reasonable guess.

The piece I wrote was extremely literary. Like, existentialism, weak speculative element etc… So, yeah, GlimmerTrain is tough, but I still don’t think it’s an unwinnable contest

19   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 26th, 2009 at 11:59 am

“However, I’ve already won WotF, I’ll stick with my usual way of making important decisions, my magic 8-ball. :)

20   David Steffen    http://www.diabolicalplots.com
September 26th, 2009 at 12:00 pm

Oops, I spliced part of your quote in with my text by accident. I meant to just say “I’ll stick with my usual way of making important decisions, my magic 8-ball. :)

21   SMD    http://wisb.blogspot.com/
September 28th, 2009 at 5:09 am

Yeah, David said everything I think I was going to say, but in more accurate terms.

To be fair, most of the places that charge a reading fee are places I wouldn’t submit to anyway, even if they were free. I typically do not write what is considered “literary” anything. I write my own version of literary, but I find what society deems as “literary” these days (at least by what is published) to be synonymous with “boring as all hell.”

WOTF, however, is on my hit list.

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  1. A Basic Lesson in Statistics - Without Really Trying    Sep 26 2009 / 11am:

    [...] my “money always flows towards the writer” post, I said that if your odds of winning a contest was 1% you had a good chance of winning over 100 [...]

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